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Part II · Chapter 12

Finding What to Sell

Which product should you export? Rather than naming one, this chapter answers with the method that finds products, for first-time exporters and for manufacturers wondering which of their lines could travel. It opens with lab-grown diamonds, a category whose shipments boomed while the price per stone fell away, to show why a product name is never a complete business decision. It then explains why raw commodity trading defeats most newcomers and sets out a seven-screen funnel built on public trade data that an idea must clear before it earns a sample. Turmeric is run through the whole funnel, from bulk rhizome to curcumin capsule. A final section tests quiet categories that may turn out to be openings or graveyards. Afterwards you can judge whether a product idea deserves real money before the first sample leaves your hands.

Key ideas

  1. The right rung for a newcomer is rarely the most valuable one: the bottom of the ladder is too crowded to defend and the top too costly to reach, which in turmeric's case leaves a middle rung as the realistic entry.
  2. The hazards that defeat commodity newcomers, from price-driven rejections to overnight export bans, weigh less on a product that has been graded, certified and branded.
  3. An empty category is a question rather than a prize, since an uncrowded market may be too small for large traders or may hide a wall that already sank earlier entrants.
The Cartel Method: The Seven-Screen Funnel. Ideas die cheaply on your laptop instead of expensively on the water.
Figure 1. The Cartel Method: The Seven-Screen Funnel. Ideas die cheaply on your laptop instead of expensively on the water.Source: Pass thresholds are practitioner consensus.
RCA Without Tears. Revealed Comparative Advantage sounds intimidating and is a division sum.
Figure 2. RCA Without Tears. Revealed Comparative Advantage sounds intimidating and is a division sum.Source: Balassa RCA; ingredients computable free on ITC Trade Map. Numbers illustrative.
The Bubble Read. How to read a Trade Map growth-vs-size chart – and which quadrant the funnel's Steps 2–3 live in.
Figure 3. The Bubble Read. How to read a Trade Map growth-vs-size chart – and which quadrant the funnel's Steps 2–3 live in.Source: Illustrative chart in Trade Map's idiom.
The Lab-Grown Lesson: Volume Up, Value Down. Loose LGD = <9% of wholesale diamond export value. The entry, correctly written: jewellery & branded retail capture, not loose-stone wholesale.
Figure 4. The Lab-Grown Lesson: Volume Up, Value Down. Loose LGD = <9% of wholesale diamond export value. The entry, correctly written: jewellery & branded retail capture, not loose-stone wholesale.Source: GJEPC via AIDI/JCK (May 2026); Edahn Golan (May 2026).

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